May 27, the RMB another record high, the sixth month, a new record, this year has risen 1.75%. Analysts believe that the yuan since April existence and the rapid appreciation of the domestic economic fundamentals and forward price divergence during the year, the appreciation or had entered the top; in the second half kept the possibility of devaluation.
Analysts say there are two "deviation"
Some analysts believe that the sharp appreciation of the yuan this year, there are two departure situation. On the one hand, China does not support the basic economic side so quickly appreciate. The first quarter of this year, China‘s GDP growth from 7.9% in the fourth quarter of last year fell to 7.7%, while the U.S. GDP growth dropped from 0.4% in the fourth quarter increased to 2.5% in the first quarter of this year. Economic growth this He has a long elimination, but the exchange rate, but this long canceled.
On the other hand, compared to the yuan appreciation against the U.S. dollar spot exchange rate in the state, has been at the forward rate premium, which may mean that the market is to look at the future devaluation of the yuan.
May 27, the RMB against the U.S. dollar forward six months to sell offer premium 640 basis points, while the one-year offer premium selling point is expanded to 1,120 basis points, which means that next year the market price of RMB against the U.S. dollar is 6.2332, or devalued 1.8%.
Traditional export industry is facing a crisis
The rapid appreciation of the renminbi, the greatest negative impact on traditional industries. Guangdong Provincial Social Science Research Center Director Li Youhuan comprehensive development, said the recent trend of the RMB exchange rate can not continue, mainly due to export trade, especially trade traditional exports have been unbearable. However, the different types of enterprises tolerance of RMB appreciation is not the same. Li Youhuan pointed out that "as some high-tech industry, even rose to 5.8 yuan against the dollar, as long as slowly appreciate, estimation problem is not large; but if it is shoes, clothing, hardware, furniture and other traditional industries, exchange rate of 6.0, both the almost retired. "
